Will AI Replace My Job? What the public data actually says

The International Labour Organization's 2025 working paper says one in four workers globally are in an occupation with some generative-AI exposure, and that transformation of jobs is the most likely impact because most occupations still include tasks that require human input (E1). That is exposure of the work, not a forecast that a quarter of jobs disappear.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics makes the same distinction in its own words: high or very high relative AI exposure does not necessarily mean employment will decline. It projects the U.S. economy to add 5.9 million jobs from 2025 to 2035, a 3.5 percent rise (E6).

Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen, using ADP payroll data through June 2026, write that they find no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement. They also write that employment of young workers ages 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations stands 19 percent below where it would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers the same age, while experienced workers show no comparable gap. They call these descriptive indicators, not causal estimates (E20).

Do not read the 19 percent as jobs erased, or as your personal odds. It is a gap against a comparison group, in one payroll sample, for one age band.

O*NET, the Labor Department's occupation database, defines a task as a specific work activity that can be unique for each occupation, and it publishes over 19,000 of those statements (E21). A title bundles tasks with very different exposure. The useful question is which of your tasks a tool can do, which it can help with, and which stay with you.

The free task check answers that at the task level and says exposure, not job loss. It does not invent a risk percentage.

Run the free task check on your title. Then take one real posting into Job Match (5 tokens) and see which requirement already has a line of proof in your resume, and which does not.